Who Knows

　　Since no one knows what scientific discoveries will be made between now and the year A. D. 2000, each of us can make his own predictions.

　　Our prophecies (預言) need not be completely wild guesses. We know science has moved forward rapidly in the past 50 years and will continue to do so. If we allow our imaginations to be guided by known research, our prophecies need not be sheer fantasy. We don't have to go so far as to predict that there will be invasion by men from Mars, or that all food and nourishment will be taken in capsule form, or that mechanical men will roam the world.

　　With the scientific information that we have available now, let's make an estimate of progress in air travel. It is likely that within 50 years we shall travel through the air at a speed of 10,000 miles per hour. Too fast? Not at all. Jet-propelled planes can now travel at least 1,000 miles an hour, and jet planes will be outmoded(過時的) shortly by guided missiles. The X-15 rocket's speed in 1961 was 3,690 miles per hour, and scientists are hoping to double and even triple this speed. They will accomplish this speed-up, because there is no apparent scientific obstacle to prevent it.

　　Some day, certain aerodynamic(空氣動力學的) problems will be overcome and missiles will be enlarged to carry at least 25 passengers. When scientists have solved all the problems of constructing and increasing the speed of apparatus-carrying missiles, their skill will lead them to the next step—missiles for interplanetary flight. This prediction is a scientific possibility in the near future.

　　Flights into outer space began when Sputnik I was launched in 1957, and man first went into space in 1961. During the late 1950's and early 1960's many satellites—man-made astral bodies—orbited the earth and moon. Satellites, which will be controlled by men on earth, may have many beneficial uses. Perhaps scientists will discover a source of energy 100 miles above the earth. This energy could be transmitted to us as a source of power for manufacturing plants or even for our cook stoves. Or one of these missiles might serve as the medium for transmitting communications across the globe. Telephonic communications might be carried on by beaming waves at the missile, which would in turn beam waves at a telephone halfway across the world. The missile might be the telephonic connection, for example, between you in New York, and a friend in Bangkok.

　　Such a satellite might also be used as the transmitting medium for interna¬tional television broadcasts. Programs being telecast from a Paris studio could then be seen simultaneously in every other country. This immediate international transmission will surely be a development before the turn of a new century.

　　We may expect to order our clothing, groceries,and other household goods by television-phone. We prophesy that within twenty five years, our telephones will be equipped with television screens so that we can see the person at the other end of the line.

　　Other fields of science have also made gigantic (巨大的 ) strides in progress. Medicine had operated so efficiently in the past half-century that many diseases have been nearly wiped out. And more will join this disappearing group of diseases. Diabetes and polio are under control. We can hope and expect that cancer will be conquered. Certain skin diseases, like psoriasis and eczema, which are exceedingly common though not fatal, will be eradicated(消滅). The victims of annoying diseases will lead pleasanter lives.

　　Even the healthy will benefit from the advances in medicine. Life expectancy already had been lengthened and scientists know that the time is coining rapidly when the person one hundred years old will not be a phenomenon.

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