1997年Passage 5

Much of the language used to describe monetary policy, such as "steering the economy to a soft landing" or "a touch on the brakes", makes it sound like a precise science. Nothing could be further from the truth. The link between interest rates and inflation is uncertain. And there are long, variable lags before policy changes have any effect on the economy. Hence the analogy that likens the conduct of monetary policy to driving a car with a blackened windscreen, a cracked rear view mirror and a faulty steering wheel.

Given all these disadvantages, central bankers seem to have had much to boast about of late. Average inflation in the big seven industrial economies fell to a mere 2.3% last year, close to its lowest level in 30 years, before rising slightly to 2.5% this July. This is a long way below the double digit rates which many countries experienced in the 1970s and early 1980s.

It is also less than most forecasters had predicted. In late 1994 the panel of economists which The Economist polls each month said that America's inflation rate would average 3.5% in 1995. In fact, it fell to 2.6% in August, and expected to average only about 3% for the year as a whole. In Britain and Japan inflation is running half a percentage point below the rate predicted at the end of last year. This is no flash in the pan; over the past couple of years, inflation has been consistently lower than expected in Britain and America.

Economists have been particularly surprised by favorable inflation figures in Britain and the United States, since conventional measures suggest that both economies, and especially America's, have little productive slack. America's capacity utilization, for example, his historically high levels earlier this year, and its jobless rate (5.6% in August) has fallen bellow most estimates of the natural rate of unemployment - the rate below which inflation has taken off in the past.
 
Why has inflation proved so mild? The most thrilling explanation is, unfortunately, a little defective. Some economists argue that powerful structural changes in the world have up ended the old economic models that were based upon the historical link between growth and inflation.

70. The passage shows that the author is _____ the present situation.
[A]critical of
[B]puzzled by
[C]disappointed at
[D]amazed at

[答案] D

[解題思路]

從總體上看來，本文主要討論的是經(jīng)濟現(xiàn)象中新的現(xiàn)象、變化和趨勢。文中第一段第二、三句中指出"Nothing could be further from the truth. The link between interest rates and inflation is uncertain"（而事實并非如此。利率和通貨膨脹之間的關系并不是確定的），第三段第一句話指出"It is also less than most forecasters had predicted"（這樣的通脹率也低于許多預測家預測的數(shù)字），第四段第一句話指出"Economists have been particularly surprised by favorable inflation figures in Britain and the United States"（尤其讓經(jīng)濟學家感到驚訝的是，英美兩國的通脹率帶來了良性的結果），而最后一段總結到"powerful structural changes in the world have up ended the old economic models that were based upon the historical link between growth and inflation"（世界經(jīng)濟結構強有力的變化已經(jīng)打破了那個以經(jīng)濟增長和通貨膨脹的原有關聯(lián)為基礎的舊有經(jīng)濟模式）。從這些語句中都可以判斷作者也是以非常驚奇的語氣來進行描述的，因此正確答案為D。

[題目譯文]

文章顯示了作者對目前形勢的態(tài)度是              。
[A]批評
[B]困惑
[C]失望
[D]驚奇