Could the bad old days of economic decline be about to return? Since OPEC agreed to supply-cuts in March, the price of crude oil has jumped to almost $26 a barrel, up from less than $10 last December. This near-tripling of oil prices calls up scary memories of the 1973 oil shock, when prices quadrupled, and 1979-80, when they also almost tripled. Both previous shocks resulted in double-digit inflation and global economic decline. So where are the headlines warning of gloom and doom this time?

The oil price was given another push up this week when Iraq suspended oil exports. Strengthening economic growth, at the same time as winter grips the northern hemisphere, could push the price higher still in the short term.��

Yet there are good reasons to expect the economic consequences now to be less severe than in the 1970s. In most countries the cost of crude oil now accounts for a smaller share of the price of petrol than it did in the 1970s. In Europe, taxes account for up to four-fifths of the retail price, so even quite big changes in the price of crude have a more muted effect on pump prices than in the past.��

Rich economies are also less dependent on oil than they were, and so less sensitive to swings in the oil price. Energy conservation, a shift to other fuels and a decline in the importance of heavy, energy-intensive industries have reduced oil consumption. Software, consultancy and mobile telephones use far less oil than steel or car production. For each dollar of GDP (in constant prices) rich economies now use nearly 50% less oil than in 1973. The OECD estimates in its latest Economic Outlook that, it oil prices averaged $22 a barrel for a full year, compared with $13 in 1998, this would increase the oil import bill in rich economies by only 0.25-0.5% of GDP. That is less than one-quarter of the income loss in 1974 or 1980. On the other hand, oil-importing emerging economies-to which heavy industry has shifted-have become more energy-intensive, and so could be more seriously squeezed.��

One more reason not to lose sleep over the rise in oil prices is that, unlike the rises in the 1970s, it has not occurred against the background of general commodity-price inflation and global excess demand. A sizable portion of the world is only just emerging from economic decline. The Economist's commodity price index is broadly unchanging from a year ago. In 1973 commodity prices jumped by 70%, and in 1979 by almost 30%.

51. The main reason for the latest rise of oil price is
[A] global inflation.��        
[B] reduction in supply.��
[C] fast growth in economy.��
[D] Iraq's suspension of exports.

[答案] B

[解題思路]

本題可以采用排除法。首先，C、D選項都出現在第二段，是上一次石油價格上漲的因素，與這一次的無關。原文第一段的倒數第二句話指出"Both previous shocks resulted in double-digit inflation and global economic decline"（前兩次的油價暴漲都導致了兩位數的通貨膨脹和全球性的經濟衰退），可見A選項中的inflation是結果而不是原因。而第一段第二句話指出"Since OPEC agreed to supply-cuts in March, the price of crude oil has jumped to almost $26 a barrel, up from less than $10 last December"（自從石油輸出國組織歐佩克在3月決定減少原油供應，原油的價格便從去年12月的每桶不到10美元攀升到約每桶26美元），可見真正的原因在于石油供應的減少，因而B選項正確。

[題目譯文]

最近石油價格上漲的一個主要原因是            。
[A] 全球性的通貨膨脹
[B] 供應的減少
[C] 經濟的迅速發展
[D] 伊拉克停止石油出口

53. The estimates in Economic Outlook show that in rich countries
[A] heavy industry becomes more energy-intensive.��
[B] income loss mainly results from fluctuating crude oil prices.��
[C] manufacturing industry has been seriously squeezed.��
[D] oil price changes have no significant impact on GDP.

[答案] D

[解題思路]

關于Economic Outlook的對應信息在文章的第四段"The OECD estimates in its latest Economic Outlook that, it oil prices averaged $22 a barrel for a full year, compared with $13 in 1998, this would increase the oil import bill in rich economies by only 0.25-0.5% of GDP"（國際經合組織在最近一期的《經濟展望》報告中估計，如果油價持續一年維持在每桶22美元左右，與1998年的每桶13美元相比，這也只會使發達國家的石油進口增加占GDP的0.25%～0.5%）。0.25%～0.5%的進口百分比說明即使國際油價上漲，也不會對GDP有很大的影響，因而D是正確選項。

[題目譯文]

《經濟展望》的預測說明在富國            。
[A] 重工業變得更加能源密集型
[B] 收入的損失主要是由于原油價格波動造成的
[C] 制造業規模已經嚴重縮小
[D] 石油價格變動對于國內生產總值的影響不大

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