1997年Passage 5

　　Much of the language used to describe monetary policy, such as "steering the economy to a soft landing" or "a touch on the brakes", makes it sound like a precise science. Nothing could be further from the truth. The link between interest rates and inflation is uncertain. And there are long, variable lags before policy changes have any effect on the economy. Hence the analogy that likens the conduct of monetary policy to driving a car with a blackened windscreen, a cracked rear view mirror and a faulty steering wheel.

　　Given all these disadvantages, central bankers seem to have had much to boast about of late. Average inflation in the big seven industrial economies fell to a mere 2.3% last year, close to its lowest level in 30 years, before rising slightly to 2.5% this July. This is a long way below the double digit rates which many countries experienced in the 1970s and early 1980s.

　　It is also less than most forecasters had predicted. In late 1994 the panel of economists which The Economist polls each month said that America's inflation rate would average 3.5% in 1995. In fact, it fell to 2.6% in August, and expected to average only about 3% for the year as a whole. In Britain and Japan inflation is running half a percentage point below the rate predicted at the end of last year. This is no flash in the pan; over the past couple of years, inflation has been consistently lower than expected in Britain and America.

　　Economists have been particularly surprised by favorable inflation figures in Britain and the United States, since conventional measures suggest that both economies, and especially America's, have little productive slack. America's capacity utilization, for example, his historically high levels earlier this year, and its jobless rate (5.6% in August) has fallen bellow most estimates of the natural rate of unemployment - the rate below which inflation has taken off in the past.

　　Why has inflation proved so mild? The most thrilling explanation is, unfortunately, a little defective. Some economists argue that powerful structural changes in the world have up ended the old economic models that were based upon the historical link between growth and inflation.

　　67. From the passage we learn that ____.

　　[A] there is a definite relationship between inflation and interest rates

　　[B]) economy will always follow certain models

　　[C] the economic situation is better than expected

　　[D] economists had foreseen the present economic situation

　　[答案] C

　　[解題思路]

　　本題可以將選項一一排除。首先，第一段第三句話指出"The link between interest rates and inflation is uncertain"(利率和通貨膨脹之間的關系并不是確定的)，因此A選項與原文相反，可以排除。B選項與文章最后的"powerful structural changes in the world have up ended the old economic models that were based upon the historical link between growth and inflation"(世界經濟結構強有力的變化已經打破了那個以經濟增長和通貨膨脹的原有關聯為基礎的舊有經濟模式)的意思相反，也是錯誤選項。D選項則與文章第四段第一句話"Economists have been particularly surprised by favorable inflation figures in Britain and the United States"(尤其讓經濟學家感到驚訝的是，英美兩國的通脹率帶來了良性的結果)的意思相反，說明目前的情況科學家們也沒有預測到，因此C選項也可以排除。而C選項正好符合這一句話隱含的意思，即實際的經濟情況比預測的要好。

　　[題目譯文]

　　從文中我們可以了解到 。

　　[A] 通貨膨脹和利率之間有確定的關系

　　[B] 經濟將總會遵循一定的模式

　　[C] 經濟狀況比預期的要好

　　[D] 經濟學家預測到了目前的經濟狀況