1997年Passage 5

　　Much of the language used to describe monetary policy, such as "steering the economy to a soft landing" or "a touch on the brakes", makes it sound like a precise science. Nothing could be further from the truth. The link between interest rates and inflation is uncertain. And there are long, variable lags before policy changes have any effect on the economy. Hence the analogy that likens the conduct of monetary policy to driving a car with a blackened windscreen, a cracked rear view mirror and a faulty steering wheel.

　　Given all these disadvantages, central bankers seem to have had much to boast about of late. Average inflation in the big seven industrial economies fell to a mere 2.3% last year, close to its lowest level in 30 years, before rising slightly to 2.5% this July. This is a long way below the double digit rates which many countries experienced in the 1970s and early 1980s.

　　It is also less than most forecasters had predicted. In late 1994 the panel of economists which The Economist polls each month said that America's inflation rate would average 3.5% in 1995. In fact, it fell to 2.6% in August, and expected to average only about 3% for the year as a whole. In Britain and Japan inflation is running half a percentage point below the rate predicted at the end of last year. This is no flash in the pan; over the past couple of years, inflation has been consistently lower than expected in Britain and America.

　　Economists have been particularly surprised by favorable inflation figures in Britain and the United States, since conventional measures suggest that both economies, and especially America's, have little productive slack. America's capacity utilization, for example, his historically high levels earlier this year, and its jobless rate (5.6% in August) has fallen bellow most estimates of the natural rate of unemployment - the rate below which inflation has taken off in the past.

　　Why has inflation proved so mild? The most thrilling explanation is, unfortunately, a little defective. Some economists argue that powerful structural changes in the world have up ended the old economic models that were based upon the historical link between growth and inflation.

　　69. The sentence "This is no flash in the pan" (Line 5, Paragraph 3) means that _____.

　　[A] the low inflation rate will last for some time

　　[B] the inflation rate will soon rise

　　[C] the inflation will disappear quickly

　　[D] there is no inflation at present

　　[答案] A

　　[解題思路]

　　題干中的這句話是英語中的一句諺語，大部分考生由于沒有在英語環境中生活過，所以一般不大可能了解這句話的含義，需要憑借上下文來進行推測。第三段最后一句話為"This is no flash in the pan; over the past couple of years, inflation has been consistently lower than expected in Britain and America"，其中分號后面的這部分意思為"在過去的幾年里，英國和美國的通脹率始終低于預期水平"，說明這個現象已經持續了幾年了，而不是曇花一現，因而A為正確答案。"flash in the pan"就是"曇花一現"的意思。

　　[題目譯文]

　　"This is no flash in the pan"(第三段第五行)這句話的意思是 。

　　[A] 低通脹率將會持續一段時間

　　[B] 通脹率馬上會上升

　　[C] 通貨膨脹很快會消失

　　[D] 當前不存在通貨膨脹

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