1997年Passage 5

Much of the language used to describe monetary policy, such as "steering the economy to a soft landing" or "a touch on the brakes", makes it sound like a precise science. Nothing could be further from the truth. The link between interest rates and inflation is uncertain. And there are long, variable lags before policy changes have any effect on the economy. Hence the analogy that likens the conduct of monetary policy to driving a car with a blackened windscreen, a cracked rear view mirror and a faulty steering wheel.

Given all these disadvantages, central bankers seem to have had much to boast about of late. Average inflation in the big seven industrial economies fell to a mere 2.3% last year, close to its lowest level in 30 years, before rising slightly to 2.5% this July. This is a long way below the double digit rates which many countries experienced in the 1970s and early 1980s.

It is also less than most forecasters had predicted. In late 1994 the panel of economists which The Economist polls each month said that America's inflation rate would average 3.5% in 1995. In fact, it fell to 2.6% in August, and expected to average only about 3% for the year as a whole. In Britain and Japan inflation is running half a percentage point below the rate predicted at the end of last year. This is no flash in the pan; over the past couple of years, inflation has been consistently lower than expected in Britain and America.

Economists have been particularly surprised by favorable inflation figures in Britain and the United States, since conventional measures suggest that both economies, and especially America's, have little productive slack. America's capacity utilization, for example, his historically high levels earlier this year, and its jobless rate (5.6% in August) has fallen bellow most estimates of the natural rate of unemployment - the rate below which inflation has taken off in the past. 

Why has inflation proved so mild? The most thrilling explanation is, unfortunately, a little defective. Some economists argue that powerful structural changes in the world have up ended the old economic models that were based upon the historical link between growth and inflation.

68. According to the passage, which of the following is TRUE?
[A] Making monetary policies is comparable to driving a car
[B] An extremely low jobless rate will lead to inflation
[C] A high unemployment rate will result from inflation
[D] Interest rates have an immediate effect on the economy

[答案] B

[解題思路]

本題可對選項進行一一排除。文章第一段最后一句話說"Hence the analogy that likens the conduct of monetary policy to driving a car with a blackened windscreen, a cracked rear view mirror and a faulty steering wheel."（因此，人們將貨幣政策的實施比做是駕駛一輛帶有灰暗擋風玻璃、后視鏡破碎及方向盤失靈的汽車），而A選項中的"Making monetary policies"與原文中的"the conduct of monetary policy"是不同的，前者指的是"金融政策的制定"，而后者指的是"金融政策的實施"，因而可以首先排除A選項。文章第一段第三句話指出"The link between interest rates and inflation is uncertain"（利率和通貨膨脹之間的關系并不是確定的），因此可以排除D選項。B和C選項的表述是相反的意思，其對應的信息在文章第四段的最后"its jobless rate (5.6% in August) has fallen bellow most estimates of the natural rate of unemployment - the rate below which inflation has taken off in the past"（而在過去的時候，當失業(yè)率降到低于自然失業(yè)率時，通貨膨脹率早已飆升），因此B是正確選項。

[題目譯文]

根據文章，下面哪個選項是正確的？
[A] 制定貨幣政策就好比開車。
[B] 極低的失業(yè)率會導致通貨膨脹。
[C] 高失業(yè)率是由通貨膨脹造成的。
[D] 利率對于經濟有立竿見影的影響。