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Could the bad old days of economic decline be about to return? Since OPEC agreed to supply-cuts in March, the price of crude oil has jumped to almost $26 a barrel, up from less than $10 last December. This near-tripling of oil prices calls up scary memories of the 1973 oil shock, when prices quadrupled, and 1979-80, when they also almost tripled. Both previous shocks resulted in double-digit inflation and global economic decline. So where are the headlines warning of gloom and doom this time?

The oil price was given another push up this week when Iraq suspended oil exports. Strengthening economic growth, at the same time as winter grips the northern hemisphere, could push the price higher still in the short term.

Yet there are good reasons to expect the economic consequences now to be less severe than in the 1970s. In most countries the cost of crude oil now accounts for a smaller share of the price of petrol than it did in the 1970s. In Europe, taxes account for up to four-fifths of the retail price, so even quite big changes in the price of crude have a more muted effect on pump prices than in the past.

Rich economies are also less dependent on oil than they were, and so less sensitive to swings in the oil price. Energy conservation, a shift to other fuels and a decline in the importance of heavy, energy-intensive industries have reduced oil consumption. Software, consultancy and mobile telephones use far less oil than steel or car production. For each dollar of GDP (in constant prices) rich economies now use nearly 50% less oil than in 1973. The OECD estimates in its latest Economic Outlook that, it oil prices averaged $22 a barrel for a full year, compared with $13 in 1998, this would increase the oil import bill in rich economies by only 0.25-0.5% of GDP. That is less than one-quarter of the income loss in 1974 or 1980. On the other hand, oil-importing emerging economies-to which heavy industry has shifted-have become more energy-intensive, and so could be more seriously squeezed.

One more reason not to lose sleep over the rise in oil prices is that, unlike the rises in the 1970s, it has not occurred against the background of general commodity-price inflation and global excess demand. A sizable portion of the world is only just emerging from economic decline. The Economist's commodity price index is broadly unchanging from a year ago. In 1973 commodity prices jumped by 70%, and in 1979 by almost 30%.

52. It can be inferred from the text that the retail price of petrol will go up dramatically if��
[A] price of crude rises.��
[B] commodity prices rise.
[C] consumption rises. ��
[D] oil taxes rise.

[答案] D

[解題思路]

文章中關于retail price的內容出現在第三段的最后一句"In Europe, taxes account for up to four-fifths of the retail price, so even quite big changes in the price of crude have a more muted effect on pump prices than in the past"（在歐洲，稅費在汽油零售價中的比例高達4/5，因此，即使原油價格發生很大的波動，汽油價格所受的影響也不會像過去那么顯著）。可見稅費在汽油零售價格中所占的比重最大，因此只有當油稅大幅度提高的時候汽油零售價格才會隨之大幅提高。A選項的意思與原文相反，而B、C兩個因素與汽油零售價格無關。

[題目譯文]

從文中可以推斷，汽油零售價格在以下哪個條件下會急劇上升？
[A] 原油價格上升
[B] 商品價格上升
[C] 消費增長
[D] 油稅上漲

54. We can draw a conclusion from the text that
[A] oil-price shocks are less shocking now.��
[B] inflation seems irrelevant to oil-price shocks.��
[C] energy conservation can keep down the oil prices.��
[D] the price rise of crude leads to the shrinking of heavy industry.

[答案] A

[解題思路]

文章開頭提出一個問題，即目前的石油價格上漲是否會像過去的石油恐慌一樣導致經濟衰退？作者給出的回答是不會。作者將目前的石油價格上漲與過去做了比較，指出現在情況已經不同，原油價格在汽油的整個價格中所占比例減少，石油價格上漲對于各國GDP的影響也變小，同時現在的經濟形勢比過于要好。因此，現在的石油價格上漲不至于引起過去那樣的恐慌，因此A為正確答案。

[題目譯文]

從文中我們可以得出以下結論
[A] 油價恐慌現在并不那么令人恐慌了
[B] 通貨膨脹看起來與油價恐慌無關
[C] 能源保護能夠使油價保持在低水平
[D] 原油價格的上漲導致了重工業的萎縮